This paper examines Victorian crime rates between April and September 2020 and considers the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on crime during Victoria's second-wave of cases.
Key findings include that:
- A total of 41,513 offences were recorded in July 2020, 38,401 in August 2020, and 40,037 in September 2020. Compared to the same period in 2019, this reflects decreases of 12.3%, 16.8%, and 12.2% respectively.
- Between April and August 2020, property crime was generally lower than would be expected based on modelling of historical data. During August the number of offences recorded was lower than forecast by: 47% for steal from a retail store; 39% for steal from a motor vehicle; and, 45% for non-aggravated burglary.
- On average over the five-month period analysed, drug possession offences were 19% higher than forecast and drug trafficking offences were 15% higher than forecast.
- Non-family violence related common and serious assault offences were lower than forecast in April and August.
- The number of family violence incidents recorded by police for those in current partner relationships was higher than expected in June and August, while the number for those in former partner relationships was lower than expected in April, May, July and September.